The crypto market has been on a rollercoaster ride in the past few weeks, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly trading above $25,200 on Feb. 21, only to be brought back down by regulatory pressure and comments from policymakers. As the March 3 options expiry approaches, investors are rethinking their exposure to cryptocurrencies and trying to determine the most likely outcome.
The open interest for the March 3 options expiry is $710 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls became overconfident after Bitcoin traded above $25,000. The 1.12 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $400 million call (buy) open interest and the $310 million put (sell) options. However, the expected outcome is likely much lower regarding active open interest.
If Bitcoin’s price remains near $23,600 at 8:00 am UTC on March 3, only $50 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This means that Bitcoin bulls must push the price above $24,000 on March 3 to secure a potential $110 million profit. On the other hand, bears have good odds of pressuring BTC below $23,000 and profiting by $85 million in the March 3 weekly options expiry.
The outcome of the March 3 options expiry will depend on how traditional markets react to the bearish mortgage applications data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on March 1. Investors should conduct their own research when making a decision, as this article does not contain investment advice or recommendations.